I want to preface this post by saying that, in poker, nothing is absolute. I should probably say the word “probably” more throughout this post but since that’s pesky and is technically bad writing I’m going to assume you know that when I imply that you should “always” do something, that I don’t mean it.

If you have talked to any great poker player, or read a poker forum, you have probably heard the phrase, “Plan your hand.” It’s sound advice that seems simple and easy to apply, but many players don’t apply it correctly. They plan out how they’re going to play if so-and-so bets, or if he checks, or raises, or whatever, but they don’t take into consideration how likely it is that someone is going to do any of those and how that changes what you should do right now. In this post I’m going to outline situations where the potential for future betting should change your approach to the hand, the math behind it, and a few tips on what typical, thinking poker players are likely to do.

Let’s take this standard poker scenario: You’re playing in a heads-up game with an aggressive regular 100bbs deep. You raise preflop with 66 and he calls. The flop is K43, you bet and the check raises. Now, this is a board he could clearly bluff, so you want to call with decent pot odds, and many players do. But given your stack depth (there’s a lot of money behind) and the texture, it’s almost certain that this player will barrel the turn. Against some players, it’s almost certain they will bet the turn and river. So if you call against the latter player, and fold later in the hand, you will have basically thrown away your flop and turn call. In reality, the flop scenario is actually like this: you raise preflop 3bb, he calls. You cbet the flop 4bb, and he c/r’s to what is essentially 100bb’s, this is because this player will bet his stack by the end of the hand most of the time. Your pot odds are actually terrible, which means you can and should play this situation really tight, and if you don’t you should realize what’s coming and decide on the flop call down light on many run outs.

Another scenario which illustrates this point beautifully is calling a 3bet preflop. Let’s say you’re playing in a headsup game with a very aggressive regular. You raise 3bb, he 3bets to 9bb, and you call with apparently 2:1 pot odds. But in reality, he’s 3betting to 20bb, because he almost certainly will cbet any flop for about 11bb. This is why you can play tight to 3bets, especially against aggrotards. Although, conversely, if this player plays weak in 3bet pots, you would want to call very wide because he will likely give you the pot and his 20bb.

There are a lot more scenarios where you might find yourself unsure whether your opponent will bet in the future, so here’s a tip. In general, the deeper the stacks behind in relation to the pot, the more likely there is to be another bet. You will probably find no future betting when the action in the hand has made a 1.5-2.5 SPR at a street other than the river, because most players find excuses not to bet here, most likely because any bet is commiting and no one likes shoving for 2.5 times the pot. A situation conducive to aggressive play, and a lot of future betting, is where someone shows aggression on the flop and you’re very deep stacked. There are countless reasons why this would encourage future betting, a couple of examples being that a) Your opponent feels like he can not be raised of his hand b) Your opponent feels that he needs to be more aggressive so he can get paid off more. There is an exception to this rule, however. If your opponent will ever get to a street where he can shove for pot, he will be bet more often, like when your opponent bets the flop in a 3bet pot with a shallow stack, leaving himself exactly pot behind on the turn. Or when someone has a stack that, with his normal bet sizing, will allow him to shove the river for basically the pot when he triple barrels. This is especially true on the flop or turn because a thinking player knows that for a shove to be a good play, you don’t have to fold that often when he has some equity to win the pot.

In poker recently, the concept of improving your “redline” or W$w/oSD (read footnote) has become popular. Most players relate improvement of redline to only bluffing more and playing more aggressively. But, in fact, I found that I improved my redline the most when I too into account future betting and whether that meant that I should fold sooner or call later. If you can advantage of these situations, you’ll find yourself saving a lot of bets and making tons of money.

footnote: For those not familiar with poker tracking software, W$w/oSD literally means Won Money without Showdown. It’s a player’s net profit in pots where the players never get to showdown. Many poker players think having a positive W$w/oSD is an important part of being a good player.