How to catch a bluff like the pros
Posted by DannyAug 16
I suppose that catching bluffs is the sexiest move in poker. It can also be the stupidest when you are wrong, which I am a lot. The problem is that being good at catching bluffs isn’t about making the biggest calls, it is about folding when you have the worst hand and calling when you have the best hand. If your a total station your bound to catch a bluff, but your not going to make a lot of money.
When deciding to make a hero call or not, I use three factors: Possibilities, Logic, and Emotions.
1. Possibilities: Is there actually a hand he could have gotten to this point, where he is betting or raising, that is not a nut hand? For example, you are OOP in a 3bet pot (heads up) and cbet a K72 rainbow board. Your opponent calls. Turn comes a 3. You check and he bets. In this situation, the only way your opponent is bluffing is if he decided to call the flop with a total air hand with the intention to take the pot down on the turn or river, or if he decided to turn his hand into a bluff. Both are unlikely scenarios. On the other hand, change the board to T95 two spades and you have a much different story. Now there are many hands he could call the flop with, KQ KJ QJ 87 to name a few, that would call on the flop.
2. Logic: Is there logic present that he could use that would make him decide to bluff? And is that logic more compelling or evident than the logic not to bluff? Another example, say you have called a open OOP, again heads up. The flop comes J86. You check, he cbets, and you call. The turn comes a King. You check and he bets. Because there are very few hands in your range that improve with the turn king, and some hands in his that a king improves, this card makes logical sense for him to bluff on (among many, many other reasons). On the other hand, in the same situation if the flop comes AT8 rainbow and the turn comes a T, the only logic I could see for him to use to make him decide to bluff is that he has a good draw, something that isn’t plentiful in his wide range, or that he feels I would lead the turn if I spiked trip tens, or maybe that I would fold an Ace, weak draw, or an 8 to a turn bet. Even though the logic is present, I would tend to not make a hero call in this spot because this logic is not as compelling as the logic that the turn card is good for my range and nearly irrelevant to his.
3. Emotions: Would his likely emotions sway him to bluff? This may seem hard to figure out, but it is something that can be grasped. Winning, for example, could make someone feel confident, disregard money more, and cause them to decide to bluff. Emotions can often be outweighed by strong logic. I may feel like total shit after I lose 4 buy ins in 5 minutes but that probably won’t cause me to bet that Ten turn on the AT8 board if I’m in position. It may however cause me to bluff when my logic is foggy. Fourbetting preflop is a great example. Most people do not have set rules on what hands they will 4bet as a bluff. You could 4bet bluff with J4s and it could very well be a good bluff. The logic is unclear. 4betting as a bluff at any given time vs most players could be good. So if you are feeling like someone is 3betting you constantly, you have lost a lot of money, and you haven’t fourbet in awhile, 93s looks as good of a candidate as any.
Sometimes, using these factors I can be absolutely sure with what seems like near 100% certainty that my opponent is bluffing. The funny thing in poker that much of the time you only have to be 30% sure to make a call correctly. And we are faced with this problem constantly in poker, because 99% of the time we don’t have the type of hand we are willing to get all in. Hopefully, this post will help turn this problem into a good situation.
3 comments
Comment by TheClowns on August 17, 2010 at 7:14 am
Nice post, I worked kind of really hard on how to bluff catch a couple months ago and if I would have read this before my learning process about this would have be much faster.
Nice blog guys, I hope you will keep making posts on it
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Comment by Lincoln on August 31, 2010 at 10:34 am
Dan the Man! This may be a silly question but here it goes:
With your example of the K72 rainbow flop, If I am in position in that hand and perceive my opponent to have a similar thought process as what you mentioned, would that give me good enough reason to float that board with a large portion of my range and bet blank turns such as 3′s until he adjusts? (I guess I should add that this would be under the presumption that he is not a triple barrel monkey nor too passive after his c-bets)
Secondly with the AT8T example. I feel like (at my stakes at least) it has become the norm among thinking players to slow down on these turns ip for the reasons you stated. Also I feel like in the past thinking players loved to cr gutshots on flops like this but now it has become common to c/c instead. So I guess in this situation I am asking if I feel that my opponent is using your logic oop after c/c flop and they are not c/r gutshots, would that give me good enough reason to barrel this turn with either light or even with complete air?
In other words for both questions, if I feel as though my opponent is thinking about me in a certain way, does that give me good enough reason to do the opposite of what he thinks I would do? Or are there other factors that need to be taken into account?
Comment by Danny on September 1, 2010 at 6:49 pm
Very good question Linc.
Both your questions seem to be referring to the same sort of concept. With the K72 question, the answer if of course yes. You can float this flop a shit ton as long as your opponent isn’t spazzy with two barrelling in 3bet pots or if they don’t like checking the turn 100% of the time whether it be a made hand or bluff. However, ersus most players OOP here I think you are better off not expecting the float.
On the AT8T example, the answer is also yes. If I’m getting two barreled on that board I’m going to fold basically all my aces and all my 8′s. If you feel like that is the case with your opponent, by all means bet the turn with air, preferably one overcard I suppose for equity against an 8. You can also try to read into his turn timing for a profitable three barrel. i.e. if someone timebanked the turn and then called the two barrel I’d certainly fire another barrel on the river.
Regarding your last point… sometimes theory strongly dictates that we should perform a certain action even if our opponent expects it. For example, if you have 88 on an AT8 board after raising pre in position, you should bet even though your opponent thinks you would do so. There are more marginal examples of this as well. But in cases where you feel two options have similar EV, you should take into account what your opponent thinks you would do, and figure out which of the options gives you a bigger advantage.