Hiatus and Weird Paper Idea
Posted by DannyMay 14
So I just graduated college (yay!) and I subsequently took a short break from regularly playing poker. I have played 2 times in the past… who knows how long… ten days? Seems like forever when you’ve played nearly everyday for nearly 4 years. I have this weird minor phobia that I will take a long hiatus and lose my skill forever. However, I am always pleasantly surprised with how well I play when I sit down and play after a break. I likely won’t be playing much until May 21st when I go to San Francisco in preparation for my 6 week long trip to Las Vegas for the World Series.
Oddly enough, the moment I get out of school all I want to do is write papers. I’ve been reading Moneyball by Michael Lewis after I did a case study in class about Billy Beane and the Oakland A’s, which is a great read by the way. After reading one part of the book about how walks and slugging percentage in baseball are more important the speed, defense, and average, I started thinking about the optimal approach to hitting. I thought about factors that would increase the amount of walks someone would get, and realized an odd factor. I realized that it was likely that taking a lot of pitches was not going to yield as many walks as a more balanced amount of pitches swung and pitches taken (One reason for this: The more a pitcher thinks of a player as a “free swinger” the more he will throw the ball out of the strike zone. If a player never swings, the pitcher will simply throw the ball down the middle every time).
Then I got to thinking it would be fun to do a statistical analysis and from it, discover theory of hitting approaches. Obviously I’d do it for fun, but I considered that I’d likely be well qualified to write a paper on this because I solve a game for a living. I’m interested what people think of this idea?
One comment
Comment by DC on May 15, 2010 at 12:07 am
I like it Danny! I know as a college pitcher and player that I tend to be much more tentative about throwing strikes if I know a guy is swinging hard as everything near the strike zone so you are pretty spot on in that respect. I also like to make pitchers know that I am not scared to swing while at the plate which sometimes means not swinging at the most optimal pitches. Personally, when I know someone is a free-swinger the goal is to then figure out just how far you can extend their strike zone although sometimes this does mean taking chances by throwing a pitch that catches a lot of the zone as pitching from behind in the count is a recipe for disaster. It’s definitely a balancing thing between too much accuracy and not enough, kind of like the balance of aggression in poker. I’d definitely be interested to hear what your take is on a game like baseball since you obviously have a great mind for games.
Also, an example I just remembered. Albert Pujols has been quoted as saying that he purposely will look bad on an offspeed or breaking pitch in the zone early in the count or game in the anticipation of getting that same pitch again later and putting it over the fence.