VPP for the week: ~63k

VPP for the year: 485, 682.50

Last week I put in no full work days and nearly hit my goal. This week I put in almost all full work days and didn’t reach my goal. The reason? Lots of time with no action. I hope this was just a fluke week, but I wasn’t able to get up to 6 tables for most of the time. I had two regulars say they didn’t want to play me anymore, which certainly didn’t help too.

Despite this, I’m pretty happy. On Monday I should hit 500k VPPs for the year and that will mean I will have a very solid winning month and one where I hit my VPP goal. I’m also 4th in VPPs on the entire site this year. One player ahead of me, Isildur, I’m sure will not be a threat because he will either stop getting action or decide to stop playing. Another player is an unknown, so not sure how much of a threat he/she is. And way ahead of everyone is Azntracker, who can and will beat me if he decides to do so. He is nearly at 1,000,000 VPPs already and is regularly putting in 30k VPP days. But it appears that there is a decent chance he is not going to go for the yearly record, as he wants to travel a lot and play a lot of live tournaments. He hasn’t yet made a commitment either way. Nonetheless, record or not I’m going to keep going with this.

Play quality wise, I was up and down. I intuited that this was true, but I can literally tell in my graph this was so because I have a redline in the shape of a mountain. Non showdown winnings is normally a pretty good indicator of how well you are playing. High or breakeven is good, steadily going down is bad. For me, the first few days it was break even and up, for the last two it was steadily down. However, I do think my spectrum of quality of play has made a jump upward. Even on the last two days where I didn’t think I played as well, I still felt like I was playing winning poker. Previous weeks I don’t think that was the case.

But there were times in my play where I just didn’t know what my opponents were doing and therefore did not know what I was doing. There are two things I’m going to work on this week to improve this weakness. One, whenever I don’t know what my opponent is doing, I’ll try to find out. I’ll look through Pt3 and put a lot of focus on remembering previous hands I’ve played with the player by memory and looking through instant hand history. Two, at times where I still can’t figure it out, or am hazy, I will default to balanced play. I will simply play my own range as optimally as possible. If I can do that, I think my play quality will boost.

Last year, I did a top five for HU SNG regulars regardless of stakes. This year, I’m going to revise that list. But before I make that list, I figure why not give my opinion on the players I play the most. The guys I run into when I’m mass multi tabling 1130′s through 345′s. Although it’s hard to do this list since people tend to move up and down stakes a lot, I tried my best to include all regulars I felt played mostly midstakes. Also, the criteria I’m using to evaluate who the best regulars are is simply who has the best overall strategy, hand reading ability, and adjustment ability. There may be some bias as the only method of observation is my experience playing these players. Nonetheless, I am confident this list is representative of the best players at midstakes. Also, as I tend to only play on Stars, I can’t account for regulars on Full Tilt, which I’m sure has a fare share of good players.

5. smeochilt

The best thing about Smeo is his endgame. He plays relentlessly aggressive as stacks get under 20bbs and plays a generally solid strategy in other aspects of the game. He has adjusted very well to me in my experience playing him. However, he can be too stationy at times. I have yet to see a huge weakness is any aspect of his game though.

4. fisfarfar

Of all the regulars on this list, I like fisfarfar’s game the best. He plays very creatively, opens a lot of buttons, and is very loose in general. He understands theoretically good bluff spots and therefore will force you to call in situations where you are behind and is apt at bluffing you off the best hand. Still, some parts of his game are too passive and he tends to play too exploitably late game.

3. micide

I haven’t actually played micide in awhile but I remember him playing me very well. He isn’t afraid to start 3betting the shit out of you if you’ve been opening too many buttons. His game is generally solid. Nonetheless, he can be too passive in big pots, but I don’t think this is a mistake vs most of the players he’s playing.

2. berndsen12

Berndsen had a huge heater for awhile, and now he’s not doing as well, but that doesn’t make me think any less of him. He has a very isildur like game. His overall strategy makes him basically impossible to bluff which can be very frustrated at times, and his strategy is very solid. I would rate his overall strategy as one of the toughest out of any regulars. I do think there are aspects of his game that are bad, but because he’s a guy I find myself playing a lot, I’m not going to divulge what I think those aspects are.

1. trader0811

It’s funny, trader and berndsen have very similar games. They have the same type of strengths: His overall strategy is very tough to beat. And they have the same types of weaknesses, which again I do not want to divulge. But what puts trader ahead of bern in my opinion is I think trader’s game is more solid and toned down, which I’m not sure  fares better against me, but I think it accounts for his success at HU SNG’s in general.

Danny on Espn2 right now, playing at the final table of the WSOPE. Watch now!

VPP for the week: 64k

VPP for the year: ~423,000

Looking at the VPP totals alone, this week may seem mediocre. But it was far from it.

I made the most money this week I have made the entire year. I don’t know the exact number, but I was up 58 buy ins, and ran hotter at 1130′s than I did at lower stakes. I played 1 2250 against Joe Cada and won to add on the the high stakes run hot. I ran about 20 buy ins above EV, so luck certainly played its part this week.

Despite 64k vpps being 11k below my weekly goal, it actually was slightly above my goal this week. I took the day off completely for valentines day for obvious reasons, so I only booked 4 days, making slightly higher than my daily 15k vpp goal. But what is so promising about this week for me is that I didn’t put in any full days. I had all partial work days and I still hit my goal and then some. What does this mean? Well, in part, it meant that I got a lot more multi table action from regulars. But it also means that I have increased my vpp/hr. I am getting more comfortable 6 tabling, and am now even letting it get up to 7 or 8 tables if I have a multi table match with a regular. With this new comfort I am going to put in a lot more 20k vpp days, and possibly even some 100k vpp weeks sans isildur.

So as you can imagine I’m excited. Making a good chunk of money makes it way easier for me to stay positive and keep perspective, but it also helped me learn an important concept. I said it in my journal best:

“This week has been a really good week for me poker wise. I feel like I’m playing well and have won a lot of money. I also checked my EV graph for the year and found that my expectation is actually much greater than my actual winnings. All of these have reinforced the belief that I am good at poker and this year is going to go well. But I don’t want my emotions to be governed by my results. What I’m realizing now is that these beliefs I have aren’t just true this week, they have been true all year. I am great at poker, and I my expected winnings this year are going to be high because of that. It’s hard not to get wrapped up in the swings of luck, swings of play quality, and swings of learning, and feel like in the bad times that everything is bad. But I have to realize there is so much variance of so many aspects of poker. I have to stay firm in my belief that I’m a winner every time I sit down and play because that is what I’ve proved to myself over time, and results on a daily, weekly, or even monthly basis cannot bog down that belief.”

Look for me to shoot up the Sharkscope and VPP leaderboards in the next few weeks.

Opponent is simply some random fish guy. He has shown me an overbet of two times the pot when he had the nuts. Max let me know before the match that he had played this guy before and he played very nitty. I have seen him bluff in a small pot but that’s it. He had just won a big pot 2 hands before.

PokerStars Game #57893630208: Tournament #366264320, $550+$20 USD Hold’em No Limit – Match Round I, Level II (15/30) – 2011/02/18 15:07:44 PT [2011/02/18 18:07:44 ET]
Table ’366264320 1′ 2-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Gringonneur (1585 in chips)
Seat 2: heybude (1415 in chips)
Gringonneur: posts small blind 15
heybude: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to heybude [Kc Tc]
Gringonneur: raises 60 to 90
heybude: calls 60
*** FLOP *** [9h 6c Td]
heybude: checks
Gringonneur: checks
*** TURN *** [9h 6c Td] [3d]
heybude: bets 90
Gringonneur: raises 210 to 300
heybude: calls 210
*** RIVER *** [9h 6c Td 3d] [5h]
heybude: checks
Gringonneur: bets 1195 and is all-in
heybude:

I was playing 6 tables at the time so I’m not really sure what kind of range he checks behind here. He wasn’t opening 100% preflop, he was opening about 70%. I would guess on this board someone would plausibly check behind a lot of air.

What do you guys think? Call or fold? Do you play it any differently?

Towards the end of yesterday, my thought processes started to deteriorate and I decided to cut down to 3 tables until I felt like I was thinking well again. I ended up two tabling a pretty good reg, but came to a situation where I made a pretty sick bluff. This is really just a total brag, no other reason to post it.

Here’s my thought process.

PokerStars Game #57787189361: Tournament #365533914, $330+$15 USD Hold’em No Limit – Match Round I, Level I (10/20) – 2011/02/16 15:33:36 PT [2011/02/16 18:33:36 ET]
Table ’365533914 1′ 2-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: 147_star (1530 in chips)
Seat 2: heybude (1470 in chips)
heybude: posts small blind 10
147_star: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to heybude [Ks 7d]
heybude: raises 20 to 40
147_star: calls 20
*** FLOP *** [Qh Jc 6s]
147_star: checks
heybude: bets 40
147_star: raises 80 to 120

Standard all the way up to here. He was c/ring the flop semi light. I felt like with one over and a likely call from a Qx that c/red, and no draws on the board, I was likely to get enough folds to justify a small 4bet.
heybude: raises 140 to 260
147_star: calls 140
*** TURN *** [Qh Jc 6s] [Ad]
147_star: checks

I expect Qx and some random floats to call here. I figure there are basically no Aces in his range, and its likely I can get Qx to fold if I small bet turn and shove river. Everything here is concievably congruent with how I would play a nut hand.
heybude: bets 220
147_star: raises 260 to 480

Now here is the most bizarre part of all. The only hand up to this point that he would play like this that is a nut hand is KT. And its likely he would either get it in on the flop or 3bet pre with it. It’s also plausible he would raise bigger at this point with it. I can’t really put him on a hand he would bluff with here, but I didn’t put it past him that he would float my flop 3bet. I figured this was likely one of a few things. T8/T9, 6x being turned into a bluff, total air, or maybe a block bet with Qx? His range wasn’t that clear, but it clearly did not include a nut hand.

heybude: raises 690 to 1170 and is all-in
147_star: folds

Definitely one of the coolest bluffs I’ve ever made.

A match between Isildur1 and my friend urnotindanger went down on stars tonight. I watched a little bit because 1) Isildur and Urnot are probably top 10 holdem players in the world and 2) They 6 table and play so aggro that it’s extremely entertaining to watch.
Read the rest of this entry

Just letting you know, from 10-12 ET right now, I will be on ESPN 2 for the WSOPE ME.

VPP for the week: ~118k

VPP total: 359,071.12

It was a week of records for me. Most VPPs in a day, most VPPs  in a week, most money made in a week so far this year.

Playing well and making money are going to make it easy to feel good about my game, this challenge, and this years potential. It hasn’t been like this all year. I have doubted myself, my game selection decisions, my vpp goal, and my ability. But today I don’t doubt any of that. It’s hard not to doubt it at times when I’ve been playing badly and getting unlucky. However, during those times I have to remember; playing badly for periods will happen, losing money will happen, and making bad decisions will happen. What I need to keep in mind is that just because these things are happening every so often, it doesn’t mean that they will keep happening. I’ve proven to myself over 5 years that with the days I lose 1/3rd of my bankroll, the months I don’t play well, and the long unlucky stretches, that these are simply parts of a journey of a winning year and career. And even at times where long term results haven’t been there, I work very hard and have a great strategy for learning and improving at this game. It is only a matter of time until good results start coming.

On the same note, I do feel like I played the best this week I have played all year. I worked very hard on improving the quality of play when I 6 table and I made some big strides. I even was comfortable playing up to 8 tables at times. The key was I started to breakdown what parts of my thought process when playing my A+ game gets lost when playing a lot of tables. I came up with two major points.

1. How will my opponent react to each possible action.

2. What specific hands did the turn or river improve or not improve.

These are both essential thoughts before making a marginal decision, but they are both the hardest to do when playing a lot of tables. At times, I was able to think of them during most of my marginal decisions. Sometimes, I lost those thoughts completely. It’s certainly harder to think well with a lot of tables than 1 or 2 tables, but I am confident if I keep focused on improving that my mind will get better and better at it and my quality of play will continue to improve.

………………

It seems that PT3 can do chip EV graphs now (or could always do them, just figured it out today). I had a pleasant or unpleasant surprise, depending on how you look at it. I am 105,000 chips below expectation, which essentially means I should be up 70 buy ins more than I am currently up.

It’s nice to see that my results should be better than they are if luck evens out, because it reaffirms the idea that my play this year has been as good as I thought it’s been. It’s also nice because  the EV evened out results are quite good given the amount of tables I play.

I’m ready to have more weeks like this.