I was playing a regular at 10/20 HU a few days ago. I got in a river spot where I decided the best move was overbet bluff, and because I was feeling goofy I decided to bet $1 less than his entire stack. To my surprise he shoved all in. I was now faced with an odd situation. I was bluffing but I was getting 4000 to 1 odds on the call. Although the situation was comical, it represented some thoughts I had been having about playing well and being confident.
When I am on my game I make a lot of very good big folds and a lot of very good big bluffs. When I’m off my game, these moves elude me. But what is different when I playing well and when I’m playing medicore? A lot of it has to do with confidence. I am getting 4000 to 1 odds on calling an all in. The amount I absolutely positively have to be sure he didn’t misclick or do some sort of odd spazz is absurd. This is representative of making good plays in poker. A lot of the time I am in spots where I’m pretty sure my opponent isn’t bluffing so I should fold, but decide to call because I’m not sure how good my reasoning is. Confidence means you believe in your own ability to think well. Can you make that good bluff that no one else would ever think of making? Can you make a big fold even though you have a very very strong hand?
This concept isn’t just important when it comes to playing, but also when it comes to getting better. I don’t know if any one factor caused me to go higher up the ladder of stakes than 98% of other poker players who put in the time and effort I did (-1% to appear less cocky), but I’m pretty sure there is one factor that was instrumental to my propulsion: Playing like I knew what I was doing, even though I sometimes didn’t.
This is what I mean by playing like I know what I’m doing. Every time I sweat a player during a coaching session, they generally refuse to make a decision without my okay. “Is this the correct play?” They ask me.
“Fuck if I know.” I think to myself, half meaning it. Getting good at poker isn’t about making the correct play, it is using and integrating the correct logic. Doing something that happened to be correct doesn’t mean you did that something well. In my best months as a poker player, I was doing shit that was so far away from what everyone else was doing that my winnings were the only thing keeping me sane. I took a huge leap. I saw a reason to play totally differently than everyone else was, and even though I really wasn’t sure these differences were correct, I stuck to them. I made huge folds, bluffs with no equity, and extreme adjustments. I was considered a crazy player in the forums, terrible by some. But a year later, my play from one year ago doesn’t seem so crazy.
I didn’t end up folding the infinity to one odds call, but it reassured me of something important. Do not be afraid to do something no one else is doing even if you are not sure it is correct. There’s a thin line between stupid and genius. And the more times you walk it, the more you will be able to walk on the good side of it.


